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The signs of a Democratic landslide are everywhere

運営事務局 JIMOPLE 8 July 17, 2020

(CNN)With just more than 100 days left before the 2020 election, there are an increasing number of red flags that suggest Republicans are headed toward a disastrous result at the ballot box this fall.


* President Trump's ratings on his handling of the coronavirus pandemic continue to collapse. In a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, just 38% approved of how Trump has dealt with the virus while 60% disapproved. Back in March, 51% approved of how Trump was handling the pandemic while 45% disapproved in that same poll. As the public has soured on Trump's ability to deal with the coronavirus pandemic, it has also moved heavily in Joe Biden's favor in general election polling. The former vice president leads Trump by 15 and 11 points in two new national polls released this week.

* Democrats have a double-digit lead in party identification. In a new Gallup number, 50% of Americans identify as Democrats or Democratic leaners while 39% describe themselves as Republicans or Republican leaners. That's a major shift from January when Republicans had a 47% to 45% edge on party ID in Gallup polling and a rapid acceleration of Democrats' advantage since even May when Democrats had a 3-point edge on the party ID question.

* Democrats are crushing Republicans in fundraising. The Democratic candidates in the 11 most competitive Senate contests in the country raised a collective $67.3 million in between April 1 and June 30 --- $20.5 million more than their Republican counterparts, according to tabulations made by the Wall Street Journal. The story is the same in the House where Democratic candidates raised $457 million in that 2nd quarter of 2020 compared to $365 million for Republican candidates. And, as the Center for Responsive Politics, which did that calculation, notes:

"That fundraising difference is even larger in swing districts currently held by well-funded Democratic incumbents.

"Recent filings show that Democrats are widening the gap. In 13 races holding primaries in June and July that are considered competitive by the Cook Political Report, incumbent Democrats have 9 times more money in the bank -- $40 million to $4.5 million -- than the best-funded Republican challengers."

Political handicappers are taking notice.

On Friday, the Cook Political Report moved 20(!) House races in favor of Democrats -- an unprecedented shift to one party. As House editor David Wasserman wrote:

"President Trump's abysmal polling since the pandemic began is seriously jeopardizing down-ballot GOP fortunes. We may be approaching the point at which dozens of House Republicans will need to decide whether to cut the president loose and run on a "check and balance" message, offering voters insurance against congressional Democrats moving too far left under a potential Biden administration....

"...Republicans began the cycle hoping to pick up 18 seats to win the majority back. Now they're just trying to avoid a repeat of 2008, when they not only lost the presidency but got swamped by Democrats' money and lost even more House seats after losing 30 seats and control two years earlier. For the first time this cycle, Democrats have at least as good a chance at gaining House seats as Republicans on a net basis."

Earlier this week, Inside Elections' editor Nathan Gonzales wrote this of the state of play in the Senate (bolding is mine):

"The Senate has been in play for at least nine months, but Democratic chances of winning control of the chamber have improved significantly in the last few weeks....

"...Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority, but can control the Senate by gaining three seats and winning the White House. With less than four months to go before Election Day, the most likely outcome is a Democratic net gain of 3-5 Senate seats. Since Biden has a clear advantage in the presidential race, that means Democrats are more likely than not to win control of the Senate."

On the presidential level, Trump is in equally bad shape. The Cook Report gives Biden 279 electoral votes in the solid, likely or leaning Democrat categories as compared to just 188 for Trump. This week the University of Virginia's Crystal Ball moved seven traditional Republican strongholds -- Alaska, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina and Utah -- from safe Republican states to likely Republican states and into the slate of potential competitive races in the presidential race.

As UVA's Kyle Kondik wrote:

"Trump is extremely unlikely to win if the polls continue to look the way they do now. And if these numbers represent a new normal, we need to account for the possibility that this election won't be particularly close, and that new states may come into play. In other words, if the national picture remains bleak for Trump, then the slippage he's seen from earlier this year wouldn't just be limited to a handful of swing states."

In short: All the signs are there that this could be a landslide up and down the ballot for Democrats. Yes, things could change between now and November 3. But, given Trump's obstinacy in refusing to admit his errors in dealing with the coronavirus and the current spikes in some of the most populous states in the country, such a turnaround seems very, very unlikely at the moment.